Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c75ddf83cf1fc406007052b793ba69849ddea0f2990c0dc28e55b20feda36c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 6c | 516.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 62c | 500$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.15 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 66c | 471.99$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.36 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 14c | 391.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 63c | 316.46$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 27c | 265.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.93 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 228.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 20c | 227.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 11c | 225$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 223.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 209.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 15c | 208.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…3ec0backed No | 44c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 37c | 176$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 8c | 175.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 37c | 151$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 147.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 11c | 145.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 132.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 11c | 123.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 120.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 44c | 114.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 92.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 89.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 19c | 85.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 17c | 82.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 30c | 82.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 28c | 81.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 56c | 75.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked No | 19c | 62.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…491dbacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 49.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 30c | 47.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed No | 56c | 46.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 43c | 44.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa450…722bbacked Yes | 34c | 37.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 55c | 32.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 36c | 32.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 70c | 32.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 70c | 27.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 48c | 25.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 66c | 24.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 74c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 14.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.