Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdba0cd5457e0bdea9102138b94dceffd925f276809d66fab5b50b750c67b91b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 12c | 683.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 585.55$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.42 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 559.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 72c | 402.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 44c | 277.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 247.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 12c | 189.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 17c | 184.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 159.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 123.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 105.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 11c | 104.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 70c | 96.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 23c | 95.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 35c | 82.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 82.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 15c | 68.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 21c | 58.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 58.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 57.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 22c | 54.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 32c | 50.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 48.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 39.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 78c | 38.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked Yes | 60c | 35.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 63c | 31.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 56c | 28.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…a1c1backed No | 72c | 25.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…d8c3backed No | 78c | 14.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 75c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.