Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcabf04a012124f334570e2345bae17d0c0d8f07b58cc3b89de2fc7e51acba415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,406$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 32c | 834.78$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.58 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 4c | 608.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 486.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 199.66$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 194.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 188.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 70c | 146.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 24c | 146.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 21c | 119.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 107.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 14c | 107.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 105.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 104.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 78c | 97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 86.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 84.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 77.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 71c | 73.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 69.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 32c | 65.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 64.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 55.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 20c | 53.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 51.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 49.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 49.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 77c | 47.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 41.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 36.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 79c | 30.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 69c | 27.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 76c | 25.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 23.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 74c | 22.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbb…52f1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 73c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 78c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 78c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 14.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 73c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 79c | 12.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.