Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18da92dd77b5dee1b16da3a2ce7a488a0631186576837f9a49c02934c4806a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 6c | 743.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked Yes | 13c | 599.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 18c | 532.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…ddb7backed Yes | 7c | 449.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed Yes | 14c | 335.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 328.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 31c | 313.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 20c | 308.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 303.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 259.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 8c | 256.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 25c | 252$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 251.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 5c | 224.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 72c | 208.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 12c | 199.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 11c | 186.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52a…43dfbacked Yes | 11c | 183.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed Yes | 8c | 182.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e4…0d99backed Yes | 12c | 177.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 46c | 161.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 67c | 153.06$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 134.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…afecbacked Yes | 18c | 131.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 131.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 120.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 23c | 101.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…a0f0backed Yes | 16c | 101.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 12c | 88.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…f048backed Yes | 21c | 88.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 54c | 86.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 24c | 84.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 83.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 54c | 77.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…1e52backed Yes | 26c | 74.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes | 22c | 70.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 40c | 51.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 67c | 46.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 65c | 46.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 72c | 44.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 62c | 42.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 40.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 61c | 40.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 36.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 39c | 35.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked Yes | 40c | 35.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…a1c1backed Yes | 41c | 32.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e6…51c0backed No | 53c | 28.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 53c | 26.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…53b1backed Yes | 40c | 25.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 80c | 24.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 23.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 53c | 21.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…17a6backed No | 66c | 15.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.