Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ce14537f0fd9cbabc3a663c8cf23bf428871436468ae1de3449ff3d4af0a57f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 78c | 649.59$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 4c | 495.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 17c | 481.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 382.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 58c | 292.29$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 57c | 265.83$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 263.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 240.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 201.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 160.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 15c | 149.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 65c | 125.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 124.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 63c | 98.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 62c | 98.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 25c | 96.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 26c | 92.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 34c | 85.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 22c | 75.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 70.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 69.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 21c | 69.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 64.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 59.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 63c | 57.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 43c | 54.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 69c | 53.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 59c | 53.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed No | 57c | 50.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 62c | 49.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 49.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 71c | 49.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 26c | 47.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 56c | 42.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 44c | 38.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 73c | 38.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 37.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 54c | 37.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…cf3fbacked Yes | 39c | 36.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…7aa0backed No | 66c | 35.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…a1c1backed No | 62c | 35.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 54c | 32.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 32.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked No | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 45c | 31.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f07…6293backed Yes | 48c | 30.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 46c | 29.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 65c | 28.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 43c | 24.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 52c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 54c | 18.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…d8c3backed No | 75c | 14.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 71c | 14.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.