Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdba96b3efe3f52ecc13fb8b047be9b2d5d9c75836d4f1f8d6601b558c2182d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,355$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,939$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 1,249$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.69 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 11c | 926.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 5c | 726.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502e…ddd6backed Yes | 12c | 654.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 6c | 591.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 386.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339b…c95ebacked Yes | 15c | 303.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 302.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 12c | 284.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 9c | 273.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…174dbacked Yes | 7c | 272.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 256.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 7c | 249.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 8c | 239.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…416ebacked Yes | 9c | 229.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 75c | 220.63$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 7c | 201.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 129.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 16c | 127.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 14c | 125.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 11c | 122.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed Yes | 25c | 120.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 117.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…9321backed Yes | 13c | 98.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 23c | 82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 17c | 73.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 19c | 65.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 77c | 33.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.