Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1e302d826fd8429725b22f7429b12fc9c7911c3fa32dce10e90e88318c21f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 8,483$2,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,634.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339b…c95ebacked No | 71c | 3,531$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 68c | 3,408$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.61 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 1cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 54c | 819.56$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.46 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 33c | 788.61$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.81 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdc…bd58backed Yes | 45c | 678.24$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 14c | 538.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.4 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 532.83$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.92 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…1217backed No | 65c | 440.76$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked No | 71c | 405.28$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 66c | 402.14$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.41 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 22c | 399.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.38 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed No | 75c | 350.98$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.53 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 44c | 339.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.51 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 336.97$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.85 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 23c | 335.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.94 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 53c | 246.25$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.63 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 34c | 242.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 241.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 63c | 189.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 186.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…63edbacked No | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 26c | 157.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.85 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f2…7395backed No | 62c | 155.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 55c | 153.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 66c | 153.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked Yes | 26c | 148.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.91 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 140.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832a…c9febacked No | 77c | 137.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 129.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 49c | 124.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4c…ee3ebacked No | 73c | 123.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 35c | 122.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 55c | 122.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 31c | 117.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 40c | 117.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed Yes | 33c | 112.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 31c | 108.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 54c | 101.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 47c | 100.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…dfddbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 32c | 99.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 99.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 23c | 97.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 37c | 95.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes | 21c | 94.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 48c | 92.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 51c | 90.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…a2b1backed No | 56c | 88.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…9fa9backed Yes | 47c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 48c | 87.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 39c | 76.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 52c | 75.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed No | 78c | 68.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…0258backed No | 72c | 67.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 77cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 47c | 65.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…9321backed Yes | 46c | 65.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 53c | 65.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 34c | 62.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ac…5315backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 30c | 57.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 42c | 56.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked No | 63c | 55.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 25c | 52.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 48.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 66c | 45.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 43.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 64c | 42.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e92…bf8dbacked No | 80c | 40.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…6b01backed Yes | 62c | 40.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb910…5444backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…65a5backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed94…53fcbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…17a3backed No | 49c | 39.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 49c | 39.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed No | 72c | 35.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 61c | 34.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…5d8dbacked Yes | 64c | 33.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435c…8e79backed No | 47c | 30.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 47c | 30.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.