Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ebd22fcae39ccf082f3e0a2bcb31c4f6848215c8fa55d3aed15a73751d33e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 18c | 1,849$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 72c | 904.97$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 841.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 14c | 722.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.43 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 78c | 700$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 25c | 661.77$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.92 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 62c | 420$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…9ae7backed Yes | 79c | 407.85$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +317.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 15c | 284.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.9 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…ed01backed Yes | 75c | 267.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 69c | 233.71$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.21 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 54c | 222$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…9321backed Yes | 54c | 188.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 50c | 183.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f2…7395backed Yes | 56c | 183$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 59c | 169.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 33c | 152.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.21 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 15c | 149.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 69c | 130$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…ad70backed Yes | 78c | 128.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 125.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 12c | 125.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 63c | 116.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 114.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 54c | 114.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 49c | 113.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 65c | 107.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 66c | 105.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74a3…ea60backed Yes | 41c | 98.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 50c | 98.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 50c | 94.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 94.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked No | 26c | 93.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 15c | 92.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 35c | 91.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…06adbacked Yes | 42c | 86.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 44c | 85.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked No | 56c | 81.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…9e20backed Yes | 64c | 80.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed No | 18c | 77.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 63c | 72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 20c | 68.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 68.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 47c | 67.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 65.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…a767backed Yes | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked No | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 41c | 60.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4c…ee3ebacked No | 63c | 59.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…416ebacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 46c | 56.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc817…9c93backed No | 51c | 54.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 78c | 51.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eda…fa83backed Yes | 49c | 50.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 42c | 46.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 59c | 44.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 26c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 41.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc6…52c6backed Yes | 61c | 41.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 40.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78a…ece1backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…480dbacked Yes | 68c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…7560backed Yes | 76c | 34.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 58c | 34.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 33.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 48c | 33.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x492a…8763backed Yes | 71c | 32.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 53c | 32.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 58c | 32.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…0501backed Yes | 64c | 31.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 55c | 29.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa846…d2a8backed Yes | 49c | 29.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 42c | 26.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…09e7backed Yes | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ac…5315backed Yes | 67c | 26.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…7f79backed Yes | 68c | 23.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 18.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 68c | 17.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1d…1ae8backed Yes | 77c | 17.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…4f2abacked Yes | 70c | 16.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.