TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,179 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No18c1,849$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.584,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes72c904.97$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.22441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes1c841.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7210531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No14c722.23$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.4329922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2138…8a11backed Yes78c700$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5485236.5%19 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No25c661.77$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.9261821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes62c420$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.46538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8365…9ae7backed Yes79c407.85$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+317.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes8c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No15c284.87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.947834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0eb…ed01backed Yes75c267.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3877…fbf1backed Yes69c233.71$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.213622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes54c222$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.211436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked No12c200$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17612125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5a…9321backed Yes54c188.68$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No50c183.21$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f2…7395backed Yes56c183$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.58650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No59c169.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4810246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No33c152.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2141070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No15c149.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.844517.8%8 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1667…8b83backed Yes69c130$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.53246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7772…ad70backed Yes78c128.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c125.53$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed No12c125.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.518017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes63c116.81$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3166543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c114.67$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes54c114.07$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.137950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes49c113.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.827737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6e…6561backed Yes65c107.32$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.773026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe630…76f9backed Yes66c105.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+32.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807334.2%25 W · 48 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc282…cd6abacked Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fc…c6aabacked No30c99.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.993246.9%15 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+56.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x74a3…ea60backed Yes41c98.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.48911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Yes50c98.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.13056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes50c94.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3332147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No30c94.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0212744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x878c…c12abacked No26c93.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.782231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No15c92.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3654037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes35c91.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.127335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes40c91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.511,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…06adbacked Yes42c86.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes44c85.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.851,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x124e…f2dfbacked No56c81.02$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.023145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce45…9e20backed Yes64c80.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde76…8992backed No67c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.471060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x329e…2eafbacked Yes40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.82532%8 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed No18c77.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.223636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9736…64b8backed No63c72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.810151.5%52 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.332044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No20c68.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.289262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes19c68.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0798738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes47c67.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5611359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes46c67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6514359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c65.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.793,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc45c…a767backed Yes54c64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.651118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-60.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f8…af3fbacked No22c63.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.642828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes41c60.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.543831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d4c…ee3ebacked No63c59.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc76a…416ebacked Yes44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252528%7 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No46c56.81$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5461760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc817…9c93backed No51c54.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.851346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes78c51.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5224216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eda…fa83backed Yes49c50.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef12…8e61backed Yes42c46.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.434231%13 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes59c44.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.572254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No26c42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9434457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes41c41.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.432,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc6…52c6backed Yes61c41.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-48.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0967…0c60backed No51c40.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0118860.1%113 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe78a…ece1backed Yes55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27fa…480dbacked Yes68c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes58c34.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05ad…7560backed Yes76c34.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes58c34.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c33.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.718,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes48c33.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.846258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x492a…8763backed Yes71c32.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No53c32.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2928329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No58c32.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.622,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c3…0501backed Yes64c31.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes55c29.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.395843.1%25 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa846…d2a8backed Yes49c29.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1192…634cbacked Yes70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes42c26.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.233732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…09e7backed Yes49c26.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76ac…5315backed Yes67c26.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0115…7f79backed Yes68c23.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d64…4a36backed Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133050%15 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No60c18.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2276371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf0…0274backed Yes68c17.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.955429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1d…1ae8backed Yes77c17.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac96…4f2abacked Yes70c16.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.