CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbba34e74fec014648b7072f442a0a563c1ece3a76415719a38918c50bbfac34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- magicof Heroic, magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bae…885abacked Heroic | 34c | 1,533$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.22 | 276 | 58%160 W · 116 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed magic | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.98 | 267 | 43.1%115 W · 152 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed magic | 68c | 1,183$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.56 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked magic | 66c | 888$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.92 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Heroic | 31c | 844.49$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.79 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…b3a2backed Heroic | 32c | 800$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heroic | 32c | 739.7$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.72 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Heroic | 34c | 477.12$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked magic | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked magic | 69c | 330$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 100 | 62%62 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked magic | 69c | 288.77$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed Heroic | 32c | 288$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed magic | 68c | 221.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 212 | 63.7%135 W · 77 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Heroic | 36c | 157$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 314 | 51.6%162 W · 152 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed magic | 64c | 157$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c5…2862backed magic | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Heroic | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb221…1301backed Heroic | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed magic | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed magic | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed magic | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Heroic | 36c | 56.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Heroic | 33c | 50.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Heroic | 33c | 44.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…8ec8backed Heroic | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 323 | 57.6%186 W · 137 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…ed12backed Heroic | 34c | 40.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed magic | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 236 | 56.4%133 W · 103 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Heroic | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed magic | 68c | 37.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed magic | 67c | 35.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed magic | 66c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed magic | 67c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed magic | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 932 | 61.7%575 W · 357 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked magic | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stagemagic won
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic - Map 1 Winnermagic won
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic - Map 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.