Premier League · resolved market
Will Wolverhampton vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbba3614b2df05ffb3b05fb4656f69432489d84154a429ffa85e3dd288a31ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 66c | 2,635$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.99 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,045$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 22c | 810$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…a9c2backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 74c | 244.91$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…d46dbacked Yes | 66c | 242.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 71c | 217.24$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…feb8backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 26c | 144.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 73c | 132.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 28c | 85.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…a6d5backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…a7aebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 74c | 25.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…67b1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 66c | 19.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wolverhampton vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle beat Wolverhampton?Yes won
- Will Wolverhampton beat Newcastle?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.