Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Gael Monfils vs Roman Safiullin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbcbc75892db1a7d047e623807ceab17df6aa35115b5d2ed666048ea44afa656
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Safiullinof Monfils, Safiullin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Monfils | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Safiullin | 52c | 4,623$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.08 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Safiullin | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Safiullin | 49c | 2,941$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.05 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Monfils | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Safiullin | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Safiullin | 48c | 1,561$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.76 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Safiullin | 48c | 1,175$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.88 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Safiullin | 48c | 1,106$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.54 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Safiullin | 36c | 701.39$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.39 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Safiullin | 47c | 637.38$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.41 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Monfils | 52c | 630.94$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Safiullin | 49c | 589.62$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Safiullin | 57c | 582.77$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.68 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Monfils | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Safiullin | 48c | 522.15$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.89 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Monfils | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Monfils | 58c | 363$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.07 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Monfils | 51c | 314$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…df6fbacked Monfils | 36c | 300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Monfils | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…b3ffbacked Monfils | 38c | 260.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Safiullin | 41c | 245.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Monfils | 51c | 239.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b6…9c1fbacked Monfils | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Monfils | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Monfils | 52c | 194.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Monfils | 52c | 192.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Monfils | 52c | 191.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Monfils | 52c | 191.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Monfils | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Safiullin | 49c | 181.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Safiullin | 49c | 170$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Monfils | 21c | 160.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Monfils | 66c | 151.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1e7bbacked Safiullin | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Safiullin | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Monfils | 28c | 100.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…253bbacked Monfils | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff33…4aedbacked Safiullin | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Safiullin | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Safiullin | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Monfils | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Monfils | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Monfils | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Monfils | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Monfils | 58c | 23.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Monfils | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.