Ligue 1 · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0630146dddba1baaa8ccfeb8bdd21f21020ba3e6dcada058cadb699314fd23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 16c | 4,099$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.89 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 1,637$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.22 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 16c | 1,423$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.14 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 18c | 1,414$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.78 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 16c | 1,246$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.46 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 1,067$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.67 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed Over | 18c | 1,012$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 17c | 503.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 20c | 373.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 16c | 263.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 18c | 249.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 19c | 248.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 20c | 231.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 18c | 197.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…b668backed Over | 16c | 128.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 16c | 100.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 21c | 96.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 17c | 93.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 16c | 91.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Over | 21c | 76.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…a941backed Over | 17c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed Over | 21c | 71.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5Under won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.