Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc287f21b3b70c23340fca176ef5b57b1e9d7fb9c8fca68a67e57011c713aab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 304.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 291.74$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 218.94$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 208.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 150.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 147.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 17c | 142$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 36c | 138.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 74c | 135.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 132.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 33c | 127.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 17c | 125.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 119.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 119.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 23c | 107.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 29c | 89.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 32c | 83.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 79.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…d3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 77.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 76.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 67c | 75.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 65.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 62.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 76c | 61.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 22c | 53.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 51.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 79c | 49.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 63c | 47.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 34c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 70c | 34.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 33.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 32.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 24.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 22.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…fdf1backed No | 62c | 22.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.