Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea370c2a250c482bb4085a4ed8e005cff34a3cfb0c4b60860ca7da239c8bd7f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 13c | 753.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.21 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 23c | 400$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 302.74$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 283.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 228.29$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 169.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 163.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 10c | 161.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 156.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 154.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.52 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 142.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 118.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 102.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 23c | 101.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 98.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 95.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 24c | 94.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 13c | 78.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 75.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 20c | 75.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 22c | 74.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 68.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 67.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 36c | 64.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 43c | 60.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 70c | 52.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 77c | 51.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 50.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 58c | 45.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 80c | 37.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 55c | 35.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 39c | 35.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 73c | 29.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 62c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 75c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 25.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…f0bbbacked No | 75c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 22.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 66c | 22.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 78c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 21.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…513abacked No | 80c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 76cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.