Fifa International · resolved market
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc3dbc965e65eb7570724895c54dffc62752faf055cb18389b37490d06211075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2184…4c8ebacked Yes | 0c | 63,362$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…61c0backed Yes | 0c | 60,590$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 349 | 64.5%225 W · 124 L | +73.5wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…53b0backed Yes | 31c | 1,606$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 159 | 30.8%49 W · 110 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 1,214$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.13 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…2d3cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,193$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.89 | 262 | 16%42 W · 220 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…4f52backed Yes | 36c | 1,067$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 30c | 1,021$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.44 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 70c | 999.97$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7264…8121backed Yes | 29c | 859.93$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.38 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 623.27$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.55 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 395$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 70c | 321.57$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 69c | 256$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7195…f4eebacked Yes | 32c | 251.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 191.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 172.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3793…a239backed Yes | 33c | 154.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 70c | 109.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 227 | 31.7%72 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…ae6abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…3773backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5047…8834backed Yes | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 66c | 64.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed No | 76c | 61.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 201 | 86.1%173 W · 28 L | +46.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 69c | 53.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 494 | 26.7%132 W · 362 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 70c | 36.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…da77backed Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 64c | 27.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 21.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 340 | 35%119 W · 221 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 69c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 548 | 59.5%326 W · 222 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ecuador to score first vs. Germany?this page
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Neither team to score first?No won
- Germany to score first vs. Ecuador?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.