Fifa International · resolved market
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4ff1da491d5b799216566b29ce6799f1b8c882ac55e9f1ffabb30c34bc6769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 16,659$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.39 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 36c | 1,600$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.46 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,412$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.53 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…2a16backed Yes | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfde…fa1bbacked Yes | 14c | 717.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 35c | 676.8$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.92 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 35c | 647.93$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.16 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…fe3bbacked Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 659 | 48.6%320 W · 339 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…c97fbacked Yes | 65c | 260.77$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 16c | 236$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…2e5bbacked Yes | 66c | 227.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 71c | 197.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851f…642fbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed No | 34c | 152.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb202…04adbacked Yes | 65c | 150.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 80 | 71.3%57 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 123.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 32c | 117.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0c…5034backed Yes | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Yes | 67c | 108$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1144…4b04backed No | 38c | 88.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…0dbdbacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 65c | 61.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 298 | 46%137 W · 161 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 34c | 57.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…8f23backed Yes | 66c | 40.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…30a3backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…44e1backed Yes | 66c | 37.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 171 | 57.9%99 W · 72 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Yes | 66c | 33.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa5…4702backed Yes | 66c | 32.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…6de4backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5094backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…8704backed Yes | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 455 | 28.4%129 W · 326 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…639dbacked Yes | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…e6ecbacked Yes | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand?this page
- New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt?Yes won
- New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.