Mls · resolved market
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc77d1ac6c6d123728ee2eb636c1b0e9ec896e3eb86cfa60b589a61a56045695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 66c | 8,122$5,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.18 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 8,024$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 35c | 4,644$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.67 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 23c | 2,548$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.61 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 80c | 2,349$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 13c | 1,740$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.09 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 33c | 826.34$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 32c | 600.92$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 35c | 465.17$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 67c | 401.81$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 33c | 392.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 15c | 360$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 33c | 341.54$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 18c | 317$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 9c | 315$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Yes | 64c | 150.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 38c | 134.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 19c | 131.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…2cfdbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 37c | 88.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…963ebacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…70a4backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc2…5eaabacked Yes | 69c | 52.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…07f1backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +230.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…0677backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…f1babacked Yes | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +74%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…c27fbacked Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2025-10-05?No won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.