MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc90cb225291a557d07a8e89b9437852d45e279f7ef103cb31988bed43a03c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 6,143$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,879.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 3,434$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 1,877$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.24 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 1,816$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,032$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.17 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 459.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 404.27$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.27 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 385.02$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.68 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 332$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 281.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 195.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 193.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 184.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 91.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c49…c6c2backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 86.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 65.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 65.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 64.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 57.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 50.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 46.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 45.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 41.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 41.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 35.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 31.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 27.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 24.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 23.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 22.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 21.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba9…1303backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 21.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 21.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…8d9cbacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 18.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 17.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.