MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb402ccd2e8001c59f67213182718337dece1cf89f906e0ff6a3827b5d45ea646

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $76,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $76,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,361 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under	55c	26,414$14,518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,896.83	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x547f…2937backed Under	56c	23,632$13,234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,397.96	138	56.5%78 W · 60 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Under	53c	15,812$8,430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,382.19	119	52.9%63 W · 56 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	44c	12,500$5,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,500	1,151	49.2%566 W · 585 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	45c	11,977$5,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,395.39	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	45c	6,345$2,869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,869.14	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	45c	5,105$2,317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,316.81	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	46c	4,096$1,874 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,873.92	2,290	51%1,167 W · 1,123 L	+23.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	45c	4,000$1,780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,780	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over	45c	3,360$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	491	58.9%289 W · 202 L	+30.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	45c	3,338$1,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,495.77	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Over	46c	2,914$1,340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,340.45	195	46.2%90 W · 105 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	45c	2,536$1,146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,145.72	2,291	52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L	+24.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over	46c	2,289$1,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,045.77	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Over	46c	1,768$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.41	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over	45c	1,151$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.18	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over	47c	1,107$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.29	410	51.7%212 W · 198 L	+14.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under	54c	917$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.82	360	48.6%175 W · 185 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Over	47c	624.55$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.54	291	47.1%137 W · 154 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	45c	617$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.49	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over	44c	568$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.92	556	53.4%297 W · 259 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	46c	533.35$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.89	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Over	45c	505.8$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.61	215	50.2%108 W · 107 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Over	44c	500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	226	38.5%87 W · 139 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a50…e934backed Under	59c	339.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.16	67	68.7%46 W · 21 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	71cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	45c	300$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	1,555	48.9%761 W · 794 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over	49c	286.8$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.53	680	53.2%362 W · 318 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	57c	262.03$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.08	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	41c	224.38$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under	30c	222.32$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.34	4,169	50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Over	46c	222.22$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.22	1,014	47.7%484 W · 530 L	-28.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Over	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	644	52.2%336 W · 308 L	+26.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over	46c	195$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.21	1,172	49.1%575 W · 597 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	78c	188.56$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.3	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	19c	174.62$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.86	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	45c	150$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Under	56c	125$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	236	51.3%121 W · 115 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ff…c62cbacked Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	41cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Over	22c	106$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.42	1,607	53.2%855 W · 752 L	+74.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	846	51.5%436 W · 410 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	994	47.3%470 W · 524 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Under	21c	100$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	48c	87.11$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over	48c	82.19$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	674	44.1%297 W · 377 L	+27.8wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under	57c	76.01$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.8	746	57.8%431 W · 315 L	-9.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	358	49.4%177 W · 181 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over	45c	60$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	738	49.3%364 W · 374 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59ab…18c6backed Over	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	111	51.4%57 W · 54 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over	48c	45.85$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79e2…3ba7backed Under	38c	45$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.85	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Over	45c	42.43$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.09	344	51.5%177 W · 167 L	-8.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under	51c	40.88$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.03	752	48.8%367 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff68…8379backed Over	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	269	40.5%109 W · 160 L	-8.9wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee16…16a2backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	50%20 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Under	52c	39.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.82	859	49.1%422 W · 437 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Over	37c	36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	344	43.9%151 W · 193 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa402…d14bbacked Over	47c	32.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	221	51.6%114 W · 107 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Over	45c	31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	234	35%82 W · 152 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x721c…d585backed Under	62c	19.5$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.35	77	54.5%42 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxWashington Nationals won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event