MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcb2234d1624fd026e274c83bae75d81cbf79a712c9d4305acab0d7dabf2e231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 1,402$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.79 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 1,169$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.97 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 17c | 815.61$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 373.78$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.09 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 268$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs | 11c | 229.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 171.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 166.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 136$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 108$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Chicago Cubs | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Chicago Cubs | 28c | 89.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 34.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 23.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 18.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 15.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 71c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.