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MLB · resolved market

Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,210 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over53c7,815$4,142 inWon+$3,673.438,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x719b…30e5backed Under47c7,800$3,666 inLost-$3,666633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over73c2,364$1,734 inWon+$629.9512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under27c1,610$430 inLost-$430.223,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed Over71c1,408$1,000 inWon+$408.453479.4%27 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under29c1,405$407 inLost-$407.3511,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over72c964.72$692 inWon+$272.6311,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under28c800$221 inLost-$220.81,93944.5%862 W · 1,077 L-29.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under14c697.5$98 inLost-$97.658,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17af…2a45backed Over56c517.86$290 inWon+$227.8611550.4%58 W · 57 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Under48c516.67$248 inLost-$24848745.2%220 W · 267 L-15.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under44c449.47$198 inLost-$197.771,08848.3%525 W · 563 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Over55c259.09$142 inWon+$116.591625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under40c197.5$79 inLost-$7910555.2%58 W · 47 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Under30c150$45 inLost-$44.9547746.8%223 W · 254 L+26.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Over56c145$81 inWon+$63.837251.6%192 W · 180 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under48c117.25$56 inLost-$56.2824349%119 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Over73c102.2$74 inWon+$27.7937856.9%215 W · 163 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over71c95$67 inWon+$27.552,15350.2%1,080 W · 1,073 L+27.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over73c85.46$62 inWon+$23.3543951.5%226 W · 213 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over63c73.38$46 inWon+$27.498,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Over65c72.97$47 inWon+$25.846444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under45c59.99$27 inLost-$26.72,44450.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Over75c53.33$40 inWon+$13.334975.5%37 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b4…6855backed Under41c48.78$20 inLost-$2014149.6%70 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Under46c43.48$20 inLost-$2074943.4%325 W · 424 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under45c40.43$18 inLost-$18.23,03648%1,458 W · 1,578 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over56c32$18 inWon+$14.082,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Over73c26.6$19 inWon+$7.1729156.7%165 W · 126 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over73c23$17 inWon+$6.224,44545%2,001 W · 2,444 L+87.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1b…aa71backed Under45c23$10 inLost-$10.3512653.2%67 W · 59 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over73c20.51$15 inWon+$5.5415052.7%79 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over73c20.11$15 inWon+$5.471,97541.3%815 W · 1,160 L-27.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Over56c20.05$11 inWon+$8.942348.2%204 W · 219 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Over74c18.83$14 inWon+$4.8347056.6%266 W · 204 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over75c18.3$14 inWon+$4.6573355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd97…ae50backed Over75c17.28$13 inWon+$4.32560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.