MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14916bead35a00e1870ee3e0ff9535b7878b860c29d99dbc83cc3d9c696eab90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 15,666$6,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,139.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 10,335$5,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,994.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…2e6dbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 5,480$3,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,252.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…442fbacked Chicago White Sox | 46c | 2,082$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 1,946$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.11 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 1,915$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 1,824$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 1,294$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.56 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 863.26$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.1 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 715.79$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.72 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 663$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.17 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 655.65$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.96 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Chicago Cubs | 6c | 548$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.33 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 464.59$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.11 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 436.7$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.49 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 384.26$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.71 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 329.01$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.86 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 74c | 293$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 288.48$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 286$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 247.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Chicago White Sox | 46c | 200.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 198.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 187.38$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 182.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…4883backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 155.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 154.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 130.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 126.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 217 | 53.9%117 W · 100 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 116.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 111.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 99.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 97.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Chicago White Sox | 65c | 95.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 95.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 71c | 79.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 69.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 67.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 63.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 63.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 60.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 54.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 52.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 31.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…549dbacked Chicago White Sox | 65c | 29.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 24.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5564…345ebacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 20.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 20.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…8eebbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 19.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.