MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdb6bf4f33da92cbd660a590ed39c30ccd6d08d845cd13db7de9e4962bfe2a23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under | 47c | 16,012$7,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,513.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 47c | 7,273$3,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,854.94 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 7,188$4,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,112.07 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 6,967$3,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,672.78 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 5,361$3,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 32c | 2,992$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.22 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 1,973$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 48c | 1,915$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.34 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 1,893$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 1,846$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.68 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,710$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.3 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 1,503$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.27 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 48c | 1,479$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.31 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 1,392$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 52c | 1,001$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.5 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 46c | 852.46$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.33 | 172 | 45.9%79 W · 93 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 829$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 48c | 726.59$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.83 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Over | 46c | 645.47$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.55 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…0665backed Under | 43c | 451.58$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 366.56$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.26 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 361.71$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 288$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Over | 48c | 204.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 183.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 32c | 140.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…9bbabacked Over | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 55c | 121.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 47c | 106.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 45c | 105.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 67c | 100.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…be98backed Under | 54c | 97.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 67c | 86.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 66c | 86.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…437fbacked Under | 47c | 85.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 54c | 83.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 82.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 48c | 75.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Over | 48c | 74.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 48c | 73.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 69c | 66.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 53c | 59.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 67c | 58.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 48c | 57.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 48c | 57.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 68c | 53.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 50.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 62c | 48.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Over | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 53c | 37.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 44c | 35.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 51c | 33.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 66c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…87e7backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 48c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 61c | 19.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Over | 69c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.