Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcbcb6633a4e48518bb52d1e67d7ab0b881a05f257a4fd3c89ac4de46e58353f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,103 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x853f…28efbacked Yes | 25c | 3,930$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,959.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 2c | 3,116$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 2,495$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…4444backed No | 75c | 1,320$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…ff7abacked No | 75c | 1,310$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…4df3backed No | 75c | 1,300$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked No | 3c | 1,089$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 8c | 984.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 5c | 963.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…a9a8backed No | 12c | 882.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…a31dbacked No | 12c | 743.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696c…c5debacked No | 2c | 713.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 3c | 647.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 555.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 10c | 468.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 74c | 461.04$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 2c | 454.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 376.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 6c | 369.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 32c | 349.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.98 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 7c | 307.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 79c | 279.26$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…85ddbacked No | 12c | 252.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 244.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 19c | 232.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.07 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 34c | 230.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.57 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 9c | 223.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.56 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 192.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.58 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 78c | 174$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 65c | 165.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 29c | 145.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…7051backed No | 12c | 131.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 130.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 120.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 52c | 99.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 91.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 63c | 84.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 71c | 82.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 27c | 81.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 14c | 70.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Yes | 38c | 66.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 77c | 65.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 29c | 62.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 23c | 54.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 49.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked Yes | 73c | 44.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…35eebacked Yes | 47c | 42.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…a3c9backed No | 53c | 41.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 38c | 40.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 29c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 30.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…e8fabacked No | 50c | 28.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 78c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 17°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 36°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.