Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39a0951071d5c21a7e0c41d6d604502e44ef4cbd3f929f7a809e6449df2d1221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,846 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 953.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 828.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…a9c0backed Yes | 8c | 749.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed Yes | 4c | 705$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 605.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 328.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 24c | 188.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 172.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…8443backed Yes | 22c | 100.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 25c | 98.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 13c | 92.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 80c | 85.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 79.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 26c | 67.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 67.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…2d9abacked Yes | 24c | 61.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 55.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 80c | 45.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 39.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 74c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 78c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0c8dbacked No | 79c | 17.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 76c | 14.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 17°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 36°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.