Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 36°F or higher on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8c4593b82bdf7b59917d657598147d5da692ddb227bd490d33b2144013a466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,229 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x435e…96c1backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 7,195$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3b…1204backed Yes | 1c | 3,546$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,058$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 2c | 2,035$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 1c | 1,380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 16c | 1,280$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…a9a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,188$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 1,104$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,104$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 3c | 1,076$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 3c | 1,022$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 4c | 972.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…85ddbacked Yes | 6c | 785.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 616.08$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 533.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 63c | 481.29$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.29 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…0c26backed Yes | 9c | 444.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 436.14$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…af55backed Yes | 5c | 429.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 353.35$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 26c | 294.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…3d1ebacked Yes | 5c | 291.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 27c | 220.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 27c | 190.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 8c | 179.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9336…cd98backed Yes | 21c | 178.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 158.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…5ba1backed Yes | 38c | 151.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 38c | 131.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked Yes | 36c | 125.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 120.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 117.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 104.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed Yes | 31c | 103.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked No | 57c | 102.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 51c | 100.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 69c | 100.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…7f0abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 22c | 96.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked Yes | 52c | 87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 85.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed No | 79c | 82.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 74.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3173backed Yes | 27c | 71.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 35c | 71.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed Yes | 44c | 67.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 67.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed No | 73c | 63.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 25c | 62.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…0d75backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked Yes | 46c | 55.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 20c | 51.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 22c | 48.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 26c | 45.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…8cb0backed Yes | 34c | 44.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 63c | 42.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 68c | 42.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 64c | 41.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1973…4121backed Yes | 36c | 41.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 55c | 40.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 59c | 37.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 51c | 34.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…0b0fbacked No | 76c | 31.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 49c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…2f0fbacked No | 60c | 28.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…6d83backed No | 60c | 28.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…35eebacked No | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…c3e7backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 52c | 21.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…9ab1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…96d0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 76c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 36°F or higher on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 17°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.