AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcc2a03111bf56585b1239f5ff66ced511e0f332f0a27e5c80745a52caee8703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x556e…85a6backed Yes | 9c | 15,412$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 10,048$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.33 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5a56backed Yes | 5c | 4,562$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 1c | 3,750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,935$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,800$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,658$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 6c | 1,242$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…95f3backed Yes | 8c | 1,221$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,205$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 1,164$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 47c | 1,060$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.96 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecd…24eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 785.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 608$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57b…32ddbacked Yes | 4c | 559.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 531.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 4c | 477.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 439.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…bc02backed Yes | 3c | 366$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…86f9backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 3c | 318.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 5c | 280$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf451…bcf1backed Yes | 6c | 262.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…78c1backed Yes | 6c | 236.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 54c | 226.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…2489backed Yes | 13c | 154.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…f398backed Yes | 8c | 125.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…b187backed No | 65c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 63c | 51.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.