TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuning 2: Li Tu vs Blake Ellis

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Li Tuof Li Tu, Blake Ellis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$103,870
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,870 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1624…bf63backed Blake Ellis26c11,779$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.81,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blake Ellis14c6,380$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.878,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Li Tu69c4,322$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.144,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Blake Ellis23c3,853$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.2527931.9%89 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Li Tu73c2,915$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.078,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Blake Ellis7c2,588$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.9272132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Li Tu79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.9520459.3%121 W · 83 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Li Tu67c2,365$1,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.3118159.7%108 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d18…0465backed Li Tu67c1,536$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.761376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd1f…2bd0backed Blake Ellis33c1,515$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.952425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Blake Ellis24c1,255$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.1536944.4%164 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f04…7994backed Blake Ellis15c1,241$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.044628.3%13 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Blake Ellis24c1,200$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9634847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e11…e1f5backed Li Tu78c1,090$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.8421451.4%110 W · 104 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Li Tu66c994.29$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.433,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Blake Ellis6c966.78$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.281,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Blake Ellis36c896.14$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.051,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfd…aadebacked Blake Ellis1c836.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8713557.8%78 W · 57 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Blake Ellis1c835.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8560355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Blake Ellis24c799.78$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.122,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Li Tu65c799.19$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.3797745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Li Tu65c641.91$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.7111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Blake Ellis21c635.92$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4730225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Li Tu80c520.53$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.798447.6%40 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Li Tu74c490.76$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.486,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Blake Ellis3c470.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1362534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Blake Ellis6c430.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9585624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fe…38c8backed Blake Ellis23c414.7$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.382917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Blake Ellis39c357.13$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.282,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Blake Ellis22c330.28$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6630744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0764…41d1backed Li Tu63c307.97$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4223457.3%134 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Li Tu67c300$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.239,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Li Tu67c287.35$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4620565.4%134 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Blake Ellis34c284.36$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.481,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…4bcdbacked Blake Ellis7c283.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9414333.6%48 W · 95 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked Blake Ellis26c260.95$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8518044.4%80 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Blake Ellis33c226.25$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.681,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Blake Ellis36c214.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9148214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Blake Ellis37c211.83$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5261752.5%324 W · 293 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e1…f17fbacked Li Tu69c207.56$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7424463.5%155 W · 89 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Blake Ellis26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523423.5%8 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-50.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Blake Ellis33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6686835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfef2…492fbacked Blake Ellis19c195.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.852634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Blake Ellis17c195.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.051,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x782c…38c2backed Li Tu63c155.21$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4316063.8%102 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Li Tu64c152.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0436554.2%198 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff77…1be5backed Blake Ellis35c147.71$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.898741.4%36 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Li Tu76c132.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6256754.5%309 W · 258 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea3d…2e9dbacked Blake Ellis38c123.24$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.838454.8%46 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Blake Ellis37c115.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.84,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Blake Ellis32c114.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7242344.2%187 W · 236 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…8263backed Li Tu78c111.43$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8518559.5%110 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Blake Ellis40c109.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2128454.9%156 W · 128 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Blake Ellis40c109.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2119055.3%105 W · 85 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Li Tu64c108.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.011478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+34.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Blake Ellis40c108.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5231463.1%198 W · 116 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Blake Ellis27c103.65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.733,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5647…8237backed Li Tu67c102.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7916560%99 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Blake Ellis32c99.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.991,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e3…37b1backed Li Tu78c99.3$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8511263.4%71 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Li Tu68c98.56$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.344,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked Blake Ellis21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7529519.7%58 W · 237 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Blake Ellis33c94.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.181,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Blake Ellis26c91.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8975312.2%92 W · 661 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Blake Ellis18c90.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0374346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa8…6e47backed Li Tu78c88.56$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4810057%57 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Blake Ellis33c85.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2917348%83 W · 90 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed Li Tu66c83.78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8723949.4%118 W · 121 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xece0…fee5backed Blake Ellis16c82.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Li Tu68c79.33$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3960158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked Li Tu75c78.33$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2148552.4%254 W · 231 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Li Tu74c78.28$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9746453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Li Tu68c77.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.961,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ab…0c25backed Blake Ellis35c77.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.95825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-60.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Blake Ellis37c77.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4478350.3%394 W · 389 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3654…04fbbacked Blake Ellis28c75.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.044721.3%10 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-41%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Li Tu66c74.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ed…72efbacked Li Tu66c71.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3838754.3%210 W · 177 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Blake Ellis24c70.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6556817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Li Tu73c69.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.957267.3%385 W · 187 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e04…57c7backed Blake Ellis20c66.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Li Tu62c61.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.641,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f23…45c7backed Li Tu80c61.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.351662.5%10 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick73cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Li Tu62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.126951.3%138 W · 131 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dcf…f174backed Li Tu78c59.46$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.089351.6%48 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e4…6ee4backed Li Tu63c59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8316152.8%85 W · 76 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Blake Ellis33c57.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912933.3%43 W · 86 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe324…9189backed Li Tu67c54.13$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8620664.1%132 W · 74 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x596b…e891backed Li Tu74c53.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.885664.3%36 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x023d…23acbacked Li Tu80c52.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6761755.9%345 W · 272 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3597…3e48backed Li Tu63c47.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6215058.7%88 W · 62 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Li Tu66c45.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.391,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Li Tu68c43.27$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8588560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Blake Ellis25c42.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.821754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Blake Ellis33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b2…dcc5backed Li Tu76c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.364753.2%25 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba1a…85febacked Li Tu67c38.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5572651.8%376 W · 350 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed Li Tu67c37.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5426548.7%129 W · 136 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Li Tu68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7666452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Li Tu77c36.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.319527.4%26 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.