Champions League · resolved market
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdce11b1541e6eeed539cc98985125dea10f75456a21df0adaa95ff0d3311dfcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 9,859$5,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400.91 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…b707backed Under | 48c | 3,500$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 73c | 3,336$2,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.04 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 28c | 1,499$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.85 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.74 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7c…e75cbacked Over | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 868.88$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.23 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 11c | 545.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked Under | 57c | 296.49$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Over | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…4c50backed Under | 52c | 243.1$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 13c | 230.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 73c | 179.64$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…86f9backed Under | 79c | 172.04$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 27c | 149.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked Over | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 22c | 117.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 70c | 117.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 28c | 111.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 17c | 108.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…2087backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 22c | 68.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Over | 41c | 66.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Over | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…cba8backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 57.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 38c | 45.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…d704backed Over | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…8797backed Under | 71c | 42.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…4871backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…6a16backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 43c | 38.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…ae13backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…6695backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…6451backed Under | 73c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.