Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e12450e11b2809764ea8fea99c032ea2e461d081f165927774df19d6b4f0b46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arsenal FCof Arsenal FC, FC Internazionale Milano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 17,278$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,863.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 5,976$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,117.85 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…e832backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 3,333$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 2,500$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee3…cfc9backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Arsenal FC | 80c | 1,505$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.05 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Arsenal FC | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 1,463$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.75 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 909.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Arsenal FC | 22c | 797.81$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.16 | 261 | 44.4%116 W · 145 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…9569backed Arsenal FC | 18c | 680.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Internazionale Milano | 65c | 671.62$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.17 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC | 28c | 550$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.05 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 535.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 400$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…dfb1backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 393.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 392.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.77 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…5cb9backed Arsenal FC | 67c | 363.47$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Arsenal FC | 18c | 362.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 334.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.82 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Arsenal FC | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Arsenal FC | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…b069backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 252.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…3273backed Arsenal FC | 17c | 230.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.88 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Arsenal FC | 14c | 202.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.09 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Arsenal FC | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Arsenal FC | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Arsenal FC | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 115.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Arsenal FC | 13c | 115.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x383b…93c2backed Arsenal FC | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +216.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…1bf2backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +116%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Arsenal FC | 23c | 94.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 91.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Arsenal FC | 35c | 90.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…395cbacked Arsenal FC | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed FC Internazionale Milano | 72c | 85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Arsenal FC | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 66.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed FC Internazionale Milano | 45c | 65.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed FC Internazionale Milano | 70c | 39.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Arsenal FC | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…443dbacked Arsenal FC | 63c | 26.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)this page
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.