Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcfd6bde3cd644acde84c62d5a7c4ecd81fa8148c3f09078424ac52cec61ad05

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rybakinaof Rybakina, Mertens
Resolved: Jan 26, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $492,200
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $593,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $492,200 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9a4d…619abacked Mertens	17c	57,571$9,787 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,787	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Mertens	15c	55,555$8,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,333.25	105	41%43 W · 62 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Mertens	16c	24,276$3,843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,842.85	1,658	49.9%828 W · 830 L	+7.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mertens	6c	10,862$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.33	2,068	34.9%721 W · 1,347 L	-44.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Mertens	17c	9,140$1,536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,536.37	182	37.9%69 W · 113 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mertens	3c	8,354$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.29	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Mertens	0c	7,545$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Mertens	9c	6,647$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.81	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mertens	16c	6,051$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$949.36	178	23%41 W · 137 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3daf…e888backed Mertens	18c	5,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Mertens	15c	4,000$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	-5.4wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mertens	10c	3,843$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.53	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mertens	2c	3,307$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.13	6,720	36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L	-95.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Mertens	14c	2,690$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.7	277	33.6%93 W · 184 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c9…e904backed Mertens	6c	2,216$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.69	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mertens	2c	2,003$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.22	2,426	47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Mertens	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.94	76	18.4%14 W · 62 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Mertens	5c	1,945$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	27.8%35 W · 91 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Mertens	16c	1,499$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	401	41.9%168 W · 233 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Mertens	6c	1,033$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	138	26.1%36 W · 102 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Mertens	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	625	45.4%284 W · 341 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Mertens	16c	999.99$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	257	22.2%57 W · 200 L	-12.3wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Mertens	17c	985.54$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.71	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Mertens	16c	923.07$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	394	31%122 W · 272 L	-11.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Mertens	17c	791.23$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.51	317	53.6%170 W · 147 L	+17.4wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Mertens	6c	653.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.68	262	44.7%117 W · 145 L	-15.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8d1…40c3backed Mertens	6c	588.95$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.96	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-6.1wins	-0.18per pick	31cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Mertens	13c	571.88$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.33	1,655	50.1%829 W · 826 L	+30.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Mertens	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	54	29.6%16 W · 38 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Mertens	15c	470.83$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.51	1,218	41.1%500 W · 718 L	-30.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf38b…b601backed Mertens	16c	438.5$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.16	50	36%18 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25c0…c187backed Mertens	7c	410.79$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.27	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Mertens	5c	367.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	111	22.5%25 W · 86 L	-16.1wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Mertens	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	271	32.1%87 W · 184 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	0%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Mertens	16c	257.4$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.9	314	34.4%108 W · 206 L	-25.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Mertens	17c	222$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.74	64	35.9%23 W · 41 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8476backed Mertens	16c	212.63$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Mertens	5c	206.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	459	9.6%44 W · 415 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Mertens	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-38%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ab…c3acbacked Mertens	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Mertens	16c	156.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	420	46.9%197 W · 223 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Mertens	15c	144.74$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.71	54	25.9%14 W · 40 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Mertens	10c	141.13$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-3.1wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x18d4…2b4abacked Mertens	15c	135.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Mertens	16c	124.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	602	40.5%244 W · 358 L	-12.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Mertens	17c	123.06$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	359	44.8%161 W · 198 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Mertens	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	374	44.1%165 W · 209 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Mertens	17c	111.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	75	33.3%25 W · 50 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x489f…71a5backed Mertens	16c	108.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.14	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Mertens	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Mertens	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Mertens	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Mertens	13c	89.7$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ddf…7441backed Mertens	16c	67.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Mertens	16c	65.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	857	42.8%367 W · 490 L	-23.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Mertens	16c	63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	1,489	32.6%486 W · 1,003 L	+22.2wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb78a…61c4backed Rybakina	80c	58$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	153	64.1%98 W · 55 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertensthis page
Rybakina vs. Mertens: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Rybakina vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)Rybakina won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event