South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-09-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd3abb51e504426824b56c6a5e9b310b4b3e4113b01710b85c78729eece6b20b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 12c | 5,184$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,350$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 990.86$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.78 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 61c | 499.96$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Yes | 43c | 262.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 63c | 248.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 59c | 247.07$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…fcecbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 58c | 238.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 232.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 39c | 225.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Yes | 42c | 208.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 61c | 197.57$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 60c | 181.33$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked No | 58c | 153.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 57c | 130.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…5f7dbacked Yes | 43c | 127.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…4678backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 121.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 61c | 97.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed No | 61c | 81.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…0560backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…9358backed Yes | 42c | 72.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…32a7backed No | 65c | 68.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa421…c61fbacked Yes | 49c | 61.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed No | 50c | 55.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…8130backed Yes | 43c | 48.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…3816backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…8084backed Yes | 41c | 24.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-09-16?this page
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. Racing Club end in a draw?No won
- Will Racing Club win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.