UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd4e109c7164523ff1818d004cc8b2b909f7ff8b6ca7b93d8c153760f62a672b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed No | 66c | 3,618$2,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.58 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 33c | 2,139$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.68 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 36c | 1,355$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.68 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…afcebacked Yes | 14c | 1,261$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…89d7backed Yes | 62c | 1,184$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2278…127abacked No | 38c | 761.68$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Yes | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 35c | 461.54$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Yes | 3c | 433.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x1a17…38b0backed Yes | 25c | 333.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +334.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 52c | 332.51$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.26 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 78c | 321.01$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…b07abacked No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 66c | 232.45$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…0208backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 63c | 135.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd422…7e43backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed No | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 61c | 67.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 60c | 54.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873b…343bbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight, Prelims)Chris Padilla won
- Will Chris Padilla win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Nasrat Haqparast win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.