Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd6bc075b0cc87b03a84ce5887cb1c4fcc13e76d83e1fcfd169f5a01a21266cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 533.98$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 438.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 25c | 411$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 399.52$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.46 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 70c | 334.65$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 10c | 326.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 270.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 8c | 254.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 238.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 203$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 7c | 161$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 33c | 160.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 207 | 10.1%21 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 37c | 133$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 111.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 111.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 623 | 23.8%148 W · 475 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 110.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 102.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 20c | 93.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 36c | 88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 67c | 79.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 316 | 57.6%182 W · 134 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 69c | 69.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 67.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 65.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 77c | 63.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 32c | 61.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 68c | 58.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 923 | 34.1%315 W · 608 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 45.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes | 32c | 39.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 33c | 31.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…9633backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 77c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 68c | 25.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 166 | 68.1%113 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 76c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on August 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.