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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on August 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,001 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes30c1,000$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.8217224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No54c759.63$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.531,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes16c523.66$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5310,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No36c461.97$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.734,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No67c454.52$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.871,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes53c372.82$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9516669.9%116 W · 50 L+24.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes39c355.9$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6562960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes16c347.47$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.571,11923.7%265 W · 854 L+74.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes17c300$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.031,24630%374 W · 872 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes51c295.21$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6589259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No6c235.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.652,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c222.35$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.015,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c220.85$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6512,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes37c210$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.241,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6235…7a5ebacked No65c210$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.82075%15 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6b…3a4cbacked Yes48c205.95$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.091163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No57c200.66$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3762323.8%148 W · 475 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9018350.8%93 W · 90 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes55c177.02$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.431,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb1…a2bbbacked Yes9c148.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+448.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes15c144.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.860032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes39c142.35$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1725158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c141.03$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.158,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No25c129$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.21,73118%311 W · 1,420 L+73.6wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No68c118.13$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2316958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No66c110.39$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.455,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No24c109.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2627578.5%216 W · 59 L+51.6wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+29%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c103.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.869,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c100.31$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.221,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1198513.8%136 W · 849 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5452347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes20c99.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1654738.6%211 W · 336 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c95.78$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.464,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No72c95.67$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.882,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes50c93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.562146.2%287 W · 334 L+40.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9edd…013cbacked Yes52c90.07$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.462766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd90b…da7cbacked No50c88.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.741747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+53.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x830b…c771backed Yes13c88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.562630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No33c85.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.485,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes57c78.66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4743951%224 W · 215 L+23.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes43c73.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7926253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.517,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed Yes31c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.35429.6%16 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c66.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.971,63260.7%990 W · 642 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x462e…a612backed Yes60c66.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.791546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes39c66.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.743,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c65.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.633,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No71c62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0246559.1%275 W · 190 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.491,45152.3%759 W · 692 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No42c55.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9718947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x154c…658ebacked Yes49c55.24$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.11850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes75c53.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.369652.1%50 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No53c51.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.242,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No45c50.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7526960.2%162 W · 107 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No45c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4549951.7%258 W · 241 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.215327.5%42 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x546a…1988backed No53c49.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.442864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c47.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.545,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No73c44.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7912064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee5…b493backed No58c43.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes43c41.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4158247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc2…d3afbacked Yes74c40.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0714154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe369…af6ebacked Yes36c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0714262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes67c39.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9212,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x038c…b4e0backed Yes52c38.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.624062.5%25 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8947…4635backed Yes50c38.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.44173.2%30 W · 11 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4868…a1c1backed Yes44c38.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.442065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed Yes42c37.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2217262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes39c35.68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.69938.4%38 W · 61 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes37c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0557744.9%259 W · 318 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No48c33.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2381457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No59c33.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.682,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No48c32.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9250462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No73c32.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9257559.7%343 W · 232 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed Yes38c31.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.421146.9%99 W · 112 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No70c31.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8115540%62 W · 93 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes51c28.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9349259.6%293 W · 199 L+22.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No44c28.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.333,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No59c26.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.532,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No70c26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.22,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No70c26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.299757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd5…62f3backed No58c25.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No78c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.519535.9%70 W · 125 L-39.3wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-35.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x31e5…422dbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+88.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes51c24.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.175431.5%17 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No72c23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5626267.6%177 W · 85 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed No76c22.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.318856.8%50 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No67c21.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.452,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked No47c21.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104936.7%18 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,65827.7%460 W · 1,198 L+119.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18cf…7439backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-63.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed Yes77c15.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.479564.2%61 W · 34 L+11.6wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+33.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No69c15.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.552,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.352653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.