Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc920567c333879d560764d0382b04116187865a475a6615fae7db11e3d538034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.82 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 759.63$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.53 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 523.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.53 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 461.97$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.73 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 67c | 454.52$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.87 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 53c | 372.82$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.95 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +24.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 39c | 355.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.65 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 347.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.57 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.03 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 51c | 295.21$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 235.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 222.35$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.01 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 220.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 37c | 210$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.24 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 65c | 210$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…3a4cbacked Yes | 48c | 205.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 57c | 200.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 623 | 23.8%148 W · 475 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 55c | 177.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb1…a2bbbacked Yes | 9c | 148.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +448.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 15c | 144.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 39c | 142.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 141.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 25c | 129$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,731 | 18%311 W · 1,420 L | +73.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 68c | 118.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 110.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 24c | 109.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 275 | 78.5%216 W · 59 L | +51.6wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 103.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 100.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 20c | 99.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 95.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 95.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked Yes | 52c | 90.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked No | 50c | 88.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 33c | 85.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 57c | 78.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 439 | 51%224 W · 215 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 43c | 73.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 66.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…a612backed Yes | 60c | 66.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 66.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 65.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 42c | 55.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 49c | 55.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 75c | 53.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 51.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 45c | 50.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 53c | 49.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 47.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 73c | 44.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…b493backed No | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 41.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc2…d3afbacked Yes | 74c | 40.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe369…af6ebacked Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 39.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed Yes | 52c | 38.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 50c | 38.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed Yes | 44c | 38.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 42c | 37.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 39c | 35.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 577 | 44.9%259 W · 318 L | +37.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 48c | 33.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 33.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 48c | 32.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 73c | 32.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 38c | 31.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 70c | 31.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 155 | 40%62 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 51c | 28.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 28.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 26.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd5…62f3backed No | 58c | 25.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…422dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 51c | 24.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 76c | 22.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 21.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked No | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,658 | 27.7%460 W · 1,198 L | +119.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18cf…7439backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 77c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +11.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.