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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe40a…e4a2backed No55c732.53$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.441,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes19c517.93$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4117224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes36c501.62$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2162960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c461.52$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.214,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No60c433.62$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.224,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.952839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No58c267.4$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3182742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No68c215.53$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.753778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes41c215$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0562146.2%287 W · 334 L+40.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes56c209.48$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6718145.3%82 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5241927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No67c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes27c200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4255742.5%237 W · 320 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c176.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0712,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec7…d145backed Yes41c170.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes16c161.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0518947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No61c160.5$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.592,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No62c159.61$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.632,50669.7%1,747 W · 759 L+78.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes30c143.18$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.156835.3%24 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No64c140$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2726366.9%176 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No59c139.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5562323.8%148 W · 475 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No78c138.82$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5157744.9%259 W · 318 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes39c133$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8763733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb530…3c03backed Yes24c128.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.287913.9%11 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c122.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1910,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c116.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.923,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No60c114.93$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.934667.6%234 W · 112 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes41c113.78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1266834.3%229 W · 439 L+37.7wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No59c112.4$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0888749.5%439 W · 448 L-26.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes29c111.81$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.895,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No64c110.78$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.55,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes36c109.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2425158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No62c109.03$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5310,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes45c108.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.920851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes38c103.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3926253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes43c100.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6654738.6%211 W · 336 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.985548.7%416 W · 439 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4188150.5%445 W · 436 L-3.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.529832.2%96 W · 202 L+0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1498513.8%136 W · 849 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes41c97.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.984,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c92.4$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.816,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c87.82$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.684,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No52c86.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.722,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c82.76$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.139,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.826038.5%100 W · 160 L+1.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes37c79.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5911444.7%51 W · 63 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes39c78.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.781,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes34c77.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3115327.5%42 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6235…7a5ebacked No65c76.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.892075%15 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes40c71.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2119755.8%110 W · 87 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes40c68.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.274156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a2…9633backed No57c66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.082365.2%15 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes46c65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.985535.7%305 W · 550 L+1.9wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No61c64.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3532149.8%160 W · 161 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes42c62.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.445431.5%17 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No65c62.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9720736.7%76 W · 131 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No61c61.3$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1812,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No56c60.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No43c59.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.831,45152.3%759 W · 692 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes39c59.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0390155.7%502 W · 399 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes39c57.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No61c56.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0324756.3%139 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No71c56.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.591,41765.2%924 W · 493 L+59.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes44c54.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247440.5%30 W · 44 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes40c54.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7253548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No63c53.51$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7516668.1%113 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No55c52.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.936,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed No74c49.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.898557.6%49 W · 36 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+36.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked No52c47.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.721352.6%112 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.615,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes38c46.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7758247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No60c45.18$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.962,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No65c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9641274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…6987backed Yes58c44.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes46c44.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.452,34058.7%1,373 W · 967 L-4.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209338.7%36 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No44c42.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.951,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No66c41.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.281,19650.8%608 W · 588 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90e0…6307backed Yes45c40.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.363237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21,61561.9%999 W · 616 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe369…af6ebacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes41c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5858850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412945.7%59 W · 70 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed Yes39c39.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.617262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes36c39.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3260032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba8…aeadbacked No80c37.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.552190.5%19 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick74cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes37c37.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0955942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No61c33.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1914154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No55c33.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2281457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No58c33.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.192,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No49c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8626960.2%162 W · 107 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No54c32.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9950462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430b…f9e0backed Yes34c31.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.871947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No46c31.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9924570.6%173 W · 72 L+22.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No63c30.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.412,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed Yes37c30.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2521146.9%99 W · 112 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf09f…1ca0backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.34667.4%31 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.