Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon beat Besiktas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd9f2191b39a85d43f7e0748a80b33974f72a6f8da9d671bf28eb3d9c72f3039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…4173backed No | 35c | 3,108$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 32c | 1,520$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.8 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 68c | 1,032$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.14 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 34c | 486.34$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.25 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 64c | 431.25$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Yes | 63c | 405.41$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.41 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 56c | 199.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 63c | 184.68$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 38c | 160.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…33c0backed Yes | 62c | 160.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…cdd5backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…0b77backed No | 37c | 143.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 65c | 116.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 63c | 101.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe9…f4e5backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…8562backed Yes | 64c | 99.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…da0dbacked Yes | 64c | 99.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…44ecbacked Yes | 64c | 99.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…f60abacked Yes | 64c | 99.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…5024backed Yes | 64c | 99.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ed…322ebacked No | 37c | 98.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…628cbacked No | 37c | 98.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…f427backed No | 37c | 98.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…2c29backed No | 37c | 98.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Yes | 63c | 98.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2314…5f6abacked No | 37c | 98.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…29aebacked Yes | 64c | 92.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 35c | 86.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 64c | 85.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 40c | 72.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4b…f1e6backed No | 36c | 71.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…5f3ebacked Yes | 70c | 70.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8a…ebd9backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddab…bd3ebacked No | 38c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 34c | 51.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 32c | 47.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked No | 33c | 44.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…0b0fbacked Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…6c29backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…f191backed Yes | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…0220backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…7e58backed Yes | 64c | 19.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…55b0backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon beat Besiktas?this page
- Will Besiktas beat Lyon?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.