South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddaf004da62839adef62f63fa9474dec998f3fc87929781d97df12346baa2770
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 57c | 30,000$17,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,900 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 43c | 29,084$12,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,506.12 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4ea6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 44c | 7,227$3,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,162.09 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 57c | 3,303$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.35 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 2,731$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.45 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Yes | 44c | 2,490$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.37 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 1,978$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc5…63c0backed No | 58c | 1,838$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ea…bf18backed Yes | 42c | 1,836$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 57c | 1,650$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.93 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 57c | 1,647$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.65 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 44c | 1,001$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 912.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 58c | 758.98$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.73 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 57c | 630.32$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.83 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…9134backed Yes | 44c | 485.55$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Yes | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Yes | 43c | 348.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ef…3298backed Yes | 13c | 338.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 72c | 239.8$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 57c | 208.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8ba9backed Yes | 43c | 204.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 7c | 201.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…7c29backed Yes | 15c | 168.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes | 43c | 160.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 43c | 154.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…1eedbacked No | 58c | 149$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 43c | 143.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d8…d41fbacked Yes | 44c | 124.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked No | 69c | 101.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd87…01a9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Yes | 42c | 99.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…bb98backed Yes | 43c | 94.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24c…eaf0backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa1…3fd8backed Yes | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…8463backed No | 58c | 81.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8729…e624backed Yes | 43c | 71.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce29…b71bbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dae…f2f4backed No | 64c | 69.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 45c | 67.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…9096backed Yes | 44c | 65.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Yes | 42c | 64.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…c4dfbacked Yes | 43c | 58.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba80…cf71backed Yes | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 56c | 40.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb812…076ebacked No | 63c | 30.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 45c | 28.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…f930backed Yes | 44c | 28.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…94f5backed Yes | 43c | 28.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…e009backed Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 57c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Yes | 43c | 24.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked No | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…448ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…1008backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 66c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-10?this page
- Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?No won
- Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.