Tennis · resolved market
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddc44988304ed9730948f6ff1a799ebc378e7817d9c3970637e1dacf6828e38e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gustavo Heideof Gustavo Heide, Maxim Mrva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4698…d7a5backed Gustavo Heide | 68c | 6,374$4,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.6 | 536 | 55.4%297 W · 239 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Maxim Mrva | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8829…300cbacked Maxim Mrva | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Maxim Mrva | 28c | 999.99$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.68 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Maxim Mrva | 39c | 920.6$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.98 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Maxim Mrva | 27c | 888.89$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Gustavo Heide | 62c | 881.95$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.62 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gustavo Heide | 74c | 678.46$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gustavo Heide | 74c | 626.39$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Maxim Mrva | 37c | 432.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Maxim Mrva | 13c | 425.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Maxim Mrva | 28c | 377.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ab0backed Maxim Mrva | 42c | 372.64$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 672 | 39.1%263 W · 409 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Maxim Mrva | 38c | 357.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Maxim Mrva | 21c | 346.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Gustavo Heide | 60c | 338.49$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Maxim Mrva | 24c | 278.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…1eb3backed Maxim Mrva | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 41.3%74 W · 105 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gustavo Heide | 60c | 219$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…45f6backed Maxim Mrva | 24c | 206.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 225 | 44.4%100 W · 125 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Maxim Mrva | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 944 | 47.7%450 W · 494 L | +34.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Gustavo Heide | 64c | 187.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd5…b065backed Maxim Mrva | 37c | 180.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Maxim Mrva | 15c | 163.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Maxim Mrva | 38c | 143.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…6b00backed Gustavo Heide | 72c | 109.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 476 | 51.9%247 W · 229 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Maxim Mrva | 36c | 104.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Gustavo Heide | 65c | 100.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Maxim Mrva | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Maxim Mrva | 42c | 90.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Maxim Mrva | 43c | 88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Maxim Mrva | 36c | 86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Maxim Mrva | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Gustavo Heide | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Maxim Mrva | 36c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Gustavo Heide | 60c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Maxim Mrva | 33c | 62.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…f9bbbacked Maxim Mrva | 18c | 59.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Maxim Mrva | 30c | 56.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Maxim Mrva | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Gustavo Heide | 60c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d4…8264backed Gustavo Heide | 79c | 52.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Maxim Mrva | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Maxim Mrva | 40c | 48.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Gustavo Heide | 68c | 43.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Maxim Mrva | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Maxim Mrva | 32c | 38.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…920bbacked Gustavo Heide | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Gustavo Heide | 59c | 31.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Maxim Mrva | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Maxim Mrva | 35c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Gustavo Heide | 61c | 30.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Gustavo Heide | 63c | 23.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed Gustavo Heide | 64c | 21.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 119 | 68.9%82 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Gustavo Heide | 60c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…35febacked Gustavo Heide | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Gustavo Heide | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 257 | 68.9%177 W · 80 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Gustavo Heide | 80c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Gustavo Heide | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Gustavo Heide | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 592 | 53.5%317 W · 275 L | +22.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.