TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,916 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaf0e…3197backed Over80c1,239$991 inWon+$247.842259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under23c935.05$213 inLost-$213.319641.3%81 W · 115 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under23c396$90 inLost-$89.9520133.3%67 W · 134 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under25c161.94$40 inLost-$39.8498945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under29c145.32$42 inLost-$41.551,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under12c121.25$14 inLost-$14.4512839.8%51 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under20c120$24 inLost-$243,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…033ebacked Over51c117.93$60 inWon+$57.825446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under37c114$43 inLost-$42.5982044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over77c109$84 inWon+$25.0768550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Over60c100$60 inWon+$4010043%43 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9900…5cc9backed Over50c94.87$47 inWon+$47.626944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over77c94$73 inWon+$21.2819852.5%104 W · 94 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over70c92.52$65 inWon+$27.6838246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over74c87.81$65 inWon+$22.8323350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over78c79$62 inWon+$17.383151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under48c69.72$34 inLost-$33.5422042.7%94 W · 126 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over75c64$48 inWon+$15.921,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf423…31c4backed Under36c39.07$14 inLost-$13.923145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Under59c27.95$17 inLost-$16.68624.4%21 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b84…6e9bbacked Over76c26.32$20 inWon+$6.32540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…c208backed Over48c26$12 inWon+$13.582254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Over66c21.32$14 inWon+$7.3219073.7%140 W · 50 L+18.6wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xace3…f9b0backed Over80c17.8$14 inWon+$3.56887.5%7 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick79cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.