Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8b44ca99a978221b6d3cded04e80d85da08109790533d07db79eb89c9eda149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 43c | 3,500$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 59c | 2,627$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 42c | 2,254$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.19 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 47c | 1,922$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.45 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 1,752$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.06 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 77c | 1,524$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.55 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 1,426$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.33 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 44c | 1,120$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…371bbacked Over | 58c | 885.02$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 795.91$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.44 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 75c | 522.05$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 503.48$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.31 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 57c | 438.03$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.86 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 43c | 417.27$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.84 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 411$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.27 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 58c | 408.51$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.7 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 386.72$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 47c | 307.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.22 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Over | 57c | 306.59$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Under | 50c | 291.24$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 30c | 249.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 46c | 222$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 29c | 218.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 53c | 210.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 46c | 174.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 51c | 172.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 60c | 163.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 155.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 11c | 154$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 47c | 127.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 45c | 111.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…340bbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 63c | 90.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 79.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 29c | 74.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…37e0backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 74c | 53.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 57c | 48.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74de…693fbacked Over | 62c | 48.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 37c | 45.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 53c | 44.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 71c | 35.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 35c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 54c | 24.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 56c | 24.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed Over | 58c | 17.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.