Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f18e78ee7ab1eca93d3466a87edb612f4bc6b7a1c64462cec1e26b0c1ba5e10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 62c | 2,426$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.03 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 39c | 2,019$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.87 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 54c | 1,062$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.3 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 755.86$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.67 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 37c | 399.56$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 37c | 350$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1d…2dd6backed Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 59c | 310.65$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 38c | 300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 34c | 245.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.03 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed No | 43c | 238$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 38c | 221.43$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…f166backed Yes | 61c | 215.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…245ebacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 37c | 169$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 38c | 132.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 37c | 131$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 37c | 129.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Yes | 68c | 121$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 35c | 67.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 65c | 67.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 35c | 52.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 44.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 66c | 39.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 38c | 38.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…7a67backed Yes | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…ccedbacked Yes | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.