MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7b49122e0b3b6c0a7b0eb4c9b383783ee354978e8034388a92f5a0e6c9fd72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 6,221$3,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,790.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 3,096$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.45 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 44c | 2,636$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 42c | 1,160$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.28 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 1,112$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.45 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 57c | 635.6$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.91 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 58c | 570.19$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.73 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 59c | 536.71$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 462.58$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.05 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 55c | 278.41$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 262.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 60c | 251.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 56c | 249.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 42c | 234.14$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 45c | 223.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 175.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 35c | 133.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 60c | 91.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 44c | 87.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 44c | 81.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under | 69c | 79.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 55c | 78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 44c | 72.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 51c | 68.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 44c | 67.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 39c | 58.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 49c | 55.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 78c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Over | 43c | 45.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Under | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…89b1backed Over | 31c | 42.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Under | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 37.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 34.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 60c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 56c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.