Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeb5842817a88768a2c4159b636e252b169b576b4eca1b2f8e0d4914315967da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf756…7d78backed Yes | 3c | 901.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 38c | 437.52$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 347.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 33c | 345.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 45c | 282.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 282$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 45c | 253.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 47c | 215.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 195.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 178$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 174.24$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 174.12$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 168.72$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 153.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 133.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 44c | 132.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 113$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 16c | 108.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 71c | 107.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4265…3741backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +352%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…5478backed Yes | 14c | 95.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 91.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…0112backed Yes | 29c | 86.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 84.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 36c | 74.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 54c | 72.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 46c | 72.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 24c | 70.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 21c | 65.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 77c | 65.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 60.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 30c | 57.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 64c | 57.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 72c | 55.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 73c | 55.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 28c | 52.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0686…f876backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 65c | 49.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 32c | 49.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…4459backed Yes | 24c | 49.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +117%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 27c | 49.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 26c | 47.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 41.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 42c | 37.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 30c | 36.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 35.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950d…d4cfbacked Yes | 34c | 34.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked Yes | 31c | 33.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 33c | 33.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 33.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 68c | 32.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 32.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 50c | 31.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7d5dbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 69c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 24.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 55c | 21.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 72c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cd…01ccbacked No | 73c | 18.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 78c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 73c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…ef6dbacked No | 69c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…78fabacked No | 79c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.