Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc06dfa72ed84531297462c7e76583faabef494db10b6105bf6b2fe40f55c76e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 47c | 628.18$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.63 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 605.02$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 595.37$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.27 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 42c | 481.8$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.96 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 47c | 469.3$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.39 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 400.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.32 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 368.12$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.8 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 49c | 316.27$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.78 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed No | 65c | 300$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 284.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5788…667cbacked No | 76c | 262.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3095backed No | 77c | 258.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 233.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 37c | 221.42$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 195.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 188.37$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 42c | 185.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…47cdbacked No | 80c | 183.58$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 162.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 49c | 150.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 149$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 77c | 142.79$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 136.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 27c | 136$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…b7c1backed No | 74c | 135.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 20c | 119.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 47c | 106.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 29c | 104.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed Yes | 29c | 104.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 100.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 62c | 99.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 25c | 98.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 98.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 57c | 96.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 91.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 77c | 91.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 82.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…fd13backed Yes | 25c | 80.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…0304backed Yes | 62c | 75.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 75.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 68c | 73.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 31c | 73.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 19c | 68.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 28c | 65.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 19c | 65.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 65.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked No | 39c | 64.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 59c | 61.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 50c | 61.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 66c | 61.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…6d37backed No | 77c | 59.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 62c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 54.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 27c | 53.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 52.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 65c | 51.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 50.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 44c | 45.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 79c | 43.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed Yes | 27c | 41.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 61c | 41.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 35c | 38.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 63c | 38.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 68c | 38.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 55c | 37.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 79c | 36.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 35.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 75c | 34.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 65c | 33.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 35c | 31.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…bbc2backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 45c | 28.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…2533backed Yes | 59c | 27.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 65c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 75c | 24.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.