Tennis · resolved market
ITF Denia: Hernan Casanova vs Carlos Lopez Montagud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf0164212ca26c8d0aff5e4d732d8d0e1cf912e760e583309cb372b1b809bbdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carlos Lopez Montagudof Hernan Casanova, Carlos Lopez Montagud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Hernan Casanova | 26c | 56,834$14,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,806.63 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…35b8backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 77c | 42,699$33,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,648.59 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hernan Casanova | 28c | 39,757$11,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,036.7 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…d758backed Hernan Casanova | 7c | 17,780$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.52 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 64c | 2,813$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.5 | 1,101 | 45.1%497 W · 604 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 41c | 2,686$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.16 | 691 | 41.1%284 W · 407 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…9ffdbacked Hernan Casanova | 1c | 2,532$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…3be0backed Hernan Casanova | 67c | 2,069$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Hernan Casanova | 73c | 2,066$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 226 | 67.7%153 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hernan Casanova | 3c | 1,938$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…347dbacked Hernan Casanova | 5c | 1,875$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 33.1%52 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9a…d10fbacked Hernan Casanova | 1c | 1,186$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 27c | 1,138$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.59 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Hernan Casanova | 5c | 1,020$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 171 | 36.3%62 W · 109 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Hernan Casanova | 7c | 949.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…6408backed Hernan Casanova | 6c | 899.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 78c | 827.03$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.32 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Hernan Casanova | 6c | 819.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked Hernan Casanova | 8c | 725.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 134 | 38.8%52 W · 82 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 30c | 669$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 27c | 628.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.16 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 28c | 600$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Hernan Casanova | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 618 | 57.8%357 W · 261 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…a47dbacked Hernan Casanova | 40c | 563.7$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 34c | 557.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.98 | 1,011 | 41.4%419 W · 592 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 45c | 552.67$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.97 | 504 | 42.7%215 W · 289 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…474ebacked Hernan Casanova | 14c | 535.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 180 | 38.3%69 W · 111 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…5e63backed Hernan Casanova | 3c | 473.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…375bbacked Hernan Casanova | 53c | 422.65$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.77 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…4cfdbacked Hernan Casanova | 3c | 377.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Hernan Casanova | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…b16dbacked Hernan Casanova | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 276 | 55.1%152 W · 124 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Hernan Casanova | 66c | 312.4$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.02 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…9b44backed Hernan Casanova | 8c | 301.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…9d29backed Hernan Casanova | 73c | 240.68$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.63 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Hernan Casanova | 5c | 215.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…698cbacked Hernan Casanova | 68c | 206.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.33 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 30c | 203.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…3ed7backed Hernan Casanova | 66c | 198.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Hernan Casanova | 25c | 189.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 787 | 57.1%449 W · 338 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 63c | 157.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Hernan Casanova | 62c | 153.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…0454backed Hernan Casanova | 72c | 138.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…2ed6backed Hernan Casanova | 36c | 137.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 28c | 135.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 325 | 46.2%150 W · 175 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Hernan Casanova | 42c | 124.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 798 | 57.6%460 W · 338 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…757abacked Hernan Casanova | 77c | 120.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Hernan Casanova | 61c | 111.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 647 | 55%356 W · 291 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…5d2bbacked Hernan Casanova | 64c | 102.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 27c | 101.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 27c | 101.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Hernan Casanova | 29c | 94.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 941 | 49.5%466 W · 475 L | +17.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…a6bebacked Hernan Casanova | 68c | 84.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d920backed Hernan Casanova | 73c | 67.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked Hernan Casanova | 72c | 62.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 28c | 61.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 65c | 61.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1,657 | 44.2%733 W · 924 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…15a6backed Hernan Casanova | 68c | 44.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -21.0wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 713 | 29.7%212 W · 501 L | -39.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 39c | 38.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 196 | 37.2%73 W · 123 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…794dbacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Hernan Casanova | 45c | 34.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…dc74backed Hernan Casanova | 37c | 32.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Carlos Lopez Montagud | 36c | 29.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…2890backed Hernan Casanova | 53c | 25.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…3106backed Hernan Casanova | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Hernan Casanova | 71c | 23.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 64c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca1…2f58backed Hernan Casanova | 65c | 20.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…898ebacked Carlos Lopez Montagud | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…78c9backed Hernan Casanova | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.