NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf04ec0a6822c6ce1fdb56d30e3b8914518b127ab8f04e4933955a2c0cee27d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 47c | 1,964$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.84 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 45c | 1,575$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.35 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 1,454$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.69 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Under | 56c | 750$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 674.54$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.54 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…390abacked Under | 56c | 530$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…b852backed Over | 44c | 530$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 55c | 410$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 288.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.71 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 46c | 231$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 55c | 178.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…a807backed Under | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 45c | 28.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…1984backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 46.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)Chargers won
- Steelers vs. ChargersChargers won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H MoneylineChargers won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 45.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.