NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd608e8369d399b86025b6cd5637cc6045a9263411cf334f0ca6d4385467556e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 34,772$17,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,392.31 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 50c | 28,978$14,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,387.98 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 11,441$5,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,928.93 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Over | 52c | 9,606$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,995.31 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 7,634$3,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,784.09 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 7,399$3,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,825.71 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.89 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 52c | 4,808$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 4,036$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.73 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 49c | 2,233$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.83 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,717$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.67 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Over | 50c | 1,680$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…7a01backed Over | 47c | 1,623$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…4ab1backed Under | 53c | 1,623$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 1,535$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.45 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Over | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 48c | 1,293$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.44 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 591.74$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.56 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…ab58backed Under | 53c | 570$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…797abacked Over | 47c | 570$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Under | 52c | 538.46$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.46 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 454$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.84 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 52c | 416.66$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 48c | 192.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…e547backed Under | 52c | 192.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…0eebbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…fd60backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 45.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)Chargers won
- Steelers vs. ChargersChargers won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H MoneylineChargers won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.