NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x380667b39a18d2e23b30472a6c2037882b45ca51778ca2bbb3c3b25e2f543288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 46c | 15,024$6,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,098.44 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 54c | 8,991$4,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,855.16 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 54c | 6,158$3,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,309.18 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 53c | 5,596$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966.11 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 47c | 3,835$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.72 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 2,656$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.48 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 1,471$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.64 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 46c | 1,080$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.85 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Over | 55c | 822.67$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Under | 50c | 806$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.56 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…f577backed Under | 49c | 673.47$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 50c | 579.26$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.25 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 49c | 514.94$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.62 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Under | 51c | 411.76$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…28cebacked Over | 54c | 363.8$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 326.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.7 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 242.57$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.56 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Over | 52c | 236.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e5…e3acbacked Over | 54c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Over | 51c | 198.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 188.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 53c | 185$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Under | 50c | 138$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 130.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…42ebbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 96.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Over | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…18acbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 51c | 74.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…de5bbacked Over | 52c | 68.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…00a1backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…516ebacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…b19ebacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 44.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa55…4b00backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8d…4a1cbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…89babacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 27.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…fcedbacked Over | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…beb1backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)Chargers won
- Steelers vs. ChargersChargers won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H MoneylineChargers won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.