NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0844d24eb43d45a81f558409c80a9021bb752ec0790e27460eda36286ac34cd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Chargers, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chargers | 41c | 49,429$20,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,152.25 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Steelers | 59c | 25,772$15,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,165.18 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Steelers | 55c | 24,824$13,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,653.06 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Chargers | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,000 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Steelers | 56c | 15,000$8,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,349.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Chargers | 43c | 10,682$4,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,088.7 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Steelers | 59c | 10,000$5,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,900 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Steelers | 57c | 9,982$5,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,690 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Chargers | 44c | 8,566$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,796.96 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Steelers | 55c | 8,304$4,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,604.67 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…2229backed Steelers | 58c | 6,472$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Steelers | 55c | 5,995$3,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,297.34 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Steelers | 57c | 4,691$2,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.77 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Steelers | 56c | 3,402$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.51 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Chargers | 47c | 3,210$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.49 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Steelers | 56c | 2,200$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.98 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Chargers | 45c | 2,000$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Steelers | 59c | 1,860$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.91 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Steelers | 58c | 1,803$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.68 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Steelers | 57c | 1,726$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.22 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Steelers | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Steelers | 56c | 1,611$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.33 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…e712backed Chargers | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Steelers | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Steelers | 59c | 879.53$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.3 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Chargers | 37c | 839.01$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.27 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Steelers | 59c | 838$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.42 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Steelers | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Chargers | 42c | 490.38$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.42 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Steelers | 54c | 444$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chargers | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chargers | 44c | 367$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.71 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Steelers | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Steelers | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Steelers | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Steelers | 58c | 239.82$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Chargers | 44c | 227.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Steelers | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Chargers | 44c | 186.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…d8b3backed Chargers | 44c | 184.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Steelers | 57c | 175.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Steelers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…40c1backed Steelers | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Steelers | 57c | 105.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Chargers | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Steelers | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Steelers | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Chargers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Chargers | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chargers | 44c | 82.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Chargers | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…de5bbacked Chargers | 43c | 52.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Chargers | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…b19ebacked Steelers | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…d0e3backed Steelers | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0488…aea5backed Steelers | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…1cf2backed Steelers | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Steelers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Steelers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c99…2c2abacked Steelers | 56c | 30.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Chargers | 46c | 28.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Steelers | 57c | 26.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Chargers | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Steelers | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed Steelers | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Chargers won
- Steelers vs. ChargersChargers won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H MoneylineChargers won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.